Drought and flood in the Anthropocene: feedback mechanisms in reservoir operation
نویسندگان
چکیده
Over the last few decades, numerous studies have investigated human impacts on drought and flood events, while conversely other studies have explored human responses to hydrological extremes. Yet, there is still little understanding about the dynamics resulting from their interplay, i.e. both impacts and responses. Current quantitative methods therefore can fail to assess future risk dynamics and, as a result, while risk reduction strategies built on these methods often work in the short term, they tend to lead to unintended consequences in the long term. In this paper, we review the puzzles and dynamics resulting from the interplay of society and hydrological extremes, and describe an initial effort to model hydrological extremes in the Anthropocene. In particular, we first discuss the need for a novel approach to explicitly account for human interactions with both drought and flood events, and then present a stylized model simulating the reciprocal effects between hydrological extremes and changing reservoir operation rules. Lastly, we highlight the unprecedented opportunity offered by the current proliferation of big data to unravel the coevolution of hydrological extremes and society across scales and along gradients of social and hydrological conditions.
منابع مشابه
Reservoir Operation During Droughts
Drought is an inevitable part of the world’s climate. It occurs in wet as well as in dry regions. Therefore, planning for drought and mitigating its impacts is essential. In this study, a hedging rule is developed using the zero/one mixed integer-programming approach. Furthermore, some procedures are introduced to ease the computational burden inherent in integer programming. Hedging rules are ...
متن کاملDeveloping optimal operating reservoir rule-curves in drought periods
In this study a simulation-optimization model is developed for deriving operation rule-curves in drought periods. To each reservoir, two rule-curves with adjustable monthly levels are introduced dividing the reservoir capacity into three zones between the normal water level and minimum operation level. To each zone of a reservoir and for each month of the year a hedging coefficient is introd...
متن کاملSimulation of Oil Reservoirs Driving Indices and Recovery Mechanisms
Different recovery mechanisms are activated during the production from reservoirs. Wells sometimes are kept with the injection. Therefore the evaluation of injection indices depended on material injection, seems to be necessary. This study is going to determine the drive indices for a reservoir by making a model using Eclipse. The model consists a gas cap and aquifer, in which there is an injec...
متن کاملOperation of Multiple Reservoirs by utilization of Simulation Method for Analysis of System Dynamics
In this paper the operation of multiple reservoirs by the utilization of analysis method of the system dynamics is considering and this analysis method is based on the feedback and object oriented events. The goal of this research is presentation of a new method by utilization of system dynamicity technique for simulation of the reservoir. This software is a product of Ventana Company and the e...
متن کاملInvestigating the Spatial Relationship between the Upstream Gauging Stations and the Reservoir
Reservoir operation involves many critical decisions due to unpredicted circumstances, such as drought or flood. The reservoir water release decision is one of the challenging tasks for the reservoir operator since the decision to deal with many complicated decision variables and multipurpose operation. Typically, the water that flow into the reservoir comes from the upstream river network. The...
متن کامل